The ULTRA Timer Report

The SPX is forming a Rising Wedge bound by S2 and R2. Wedges are common at minor reversals. Prices normally oscillate within the wedge and then break down about 2/3rds of the way to the apex. We are nearing that area now.

Since we are in a very bullish seasonal period now, I suspect the probability is high that that we'll retest R2 in the next few days. Also, historically since 1942 when the NYSE Advances minus Declines on the last day in the week is greater than 1.5, the SPX appreciates at an annual rate of 62% on the following Monday.

I still think that S2 will fail and S1 will be tested. Hopefully, that test will occur around March 13 when another very bullish seasonal period begins. The SPX at S1 in mid-March looks to be a good buying opportunity.

The SPX is due for a correction which I expect to take the SPX down to S1 making for a very obvious place to go long with non-mechanical capital. However, a failure of S1 would imply a serious correction probably down to 1000-1020.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Price Analysis

NDX At Major Support (S1)

As you can see in the weekly chart above, the NDX is on major support. If S1 fails on a weekly closing basis, there should be significant selling in the NDX. I wouldn't be surprised to see symmetry eventually take the NDX down to major support at S3 which is 27% lower.

NDX Relative Strength

The NDX-RS broke down out of its uptrending channel and has been falling ever since. This is worrisome for the general market in the intermediate term.

Summary

I think its wise to avoid the NDX with non-mechanical accounts.

RUT Technical Price Analysis

RUT Having Trouble Getting Through 600

The RUT has formed a Triangle. The direction of the break out of this triangle will likely determine the next significant move in the RUT. Considering that the general market is overdue for a correction, I expect R1 to turn the RUT back down..

RUT Relative Strength

RUT-RS has formed a well defined support line S2 and is trying to break out above a downsloping resistance line (R2). If the RUT were able to break out above R1 and R2 it would be a bullish sign for the RUT.

Summary

I will avoid the RUT with non-mechanical capital unless R1 and R2 are overcome.

XAU Technical Price Analysis

Huge Head-and-Shoulders Bottom (HSB) (No change)

The HSB still calls for an eventual move in the XAU up to 160. The neckline (NL) is currently at around 90. As you can see we are getting closer to the retest of 90 which should be a great buying opportunity.

Summary (No Change)

I will be buying the XAU with non-mechanical capital upon a retest of NL at 90.

ULTRA's Recommended Strategies

Recommended Strategy Risk = LOW-MEDIUM

Recommended Index = SP500.
Strategy Positions are HERE .
Strategy Descriptions are HERE.

Last Report

Sincerely,
Steve Hunter, ULTRA Financial Systems Inc.

ULTRA Financial Systems Inc.
P.O. Box 3938, Breckenridge CO 80424
hone: 970-453-4956 Fax: 970-453-2467