ULTRA Financial Systems

Ultimate Seasonal Strategy (USEAS)

USEAS is a combination of three market timing systems that have been used in real time for many years. The three systems are SEAS2, PERIOD, and HDAY. The strategy is very simple. You buy the SP500 any time any of the three systems are on buy signals.

The ULTRA Composite Definition is:

@SYS
HDAY,1
SEAS2,1
PERIOD,1
@ALL
0,0
1,100
2,100
3,100
@END

The systems all have optional parameters that can be changed via the ULTRA Options/Timing Systems Options menu item. USEAS uses the default settings for the three systems

HDAY

Buy at close 4 trading days before Easter, hold 3 trading days.
Buy at close 2 trading days before Memorial Day. hold 1 trading day.
Buy at close 3 trading days before July 4th. Hold 2 trading days.
Buy at close 2 trading days before Labor Day Hold 1 trading day.

SEAS2

Buy at the close of the next to last trading day of: FEB, APR, JUN, and OCT. Hold four trading days.

Buy on the Monday before Thanksgiving. Sell at the close on the 3rd trading day of January.

PERIOD

Buy at the close on Jan 13 (or the next trading day). Hold four days.
Buy at the close on Mar 13 (or the next trading day). Hold three days.
Buy at the close on Jul 6 (or the next trading day). Hold four days.
Buy at the close on Nov 19 (or the next trading day). Hold four days.

Historically From 01/02/80 to 04/17/03, USEAS has returned:

69% winning trades. Maximum drawdown of -9.9% (-49.2% for the SP500)
+15.4% annual return (compared to 9.5% for the SP500)
Ulcer Index of 2.12 (compared to the 13.3 for the SP500)
Annualized return while invested of +41%.

Summary

Buying and holding the SP500 gives you a chance at 9% annual returns while suffering temporary losses of nearly 50%. By using seasonals to manage part of your portfolio you harness a very low-risk phenomenon that has been successful for many years in real-time.

ULTRA Financial Systems Inc.
P.O. Box 3938, Breckenridge CO 80424
Phone: 970-453-4956 Fax: 970-453-2467